Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 9 Recap

In this issue:

The Bears win off the bye

The Packers had a 21 point lead, but San Diego charged back

The Chicago Bears came off a bye and beat the Philadelphia Eagles 30-24 in Philly.  The Bears took the opening possession 79 yards on 12 plays, capped by a 5 yard pass from Jay Cutler to Ben Spaeth.  Robbie Gould hit a 51 yard field goal to make it 10-0, but the Eagles Answered with a field goal and a 22 yard fumble return for a touchdown on Matt Forte’s fumble to tie it at 10.

Marion Barber put the Bears on top with a hard fought 2 yard TD run, but the Eagles answered with 2 TDs (one after Forte’s second fumble) to go up 24-17.  Gould hit a 38 yarder to make it 24-20, then Cutler found Earl Bennett, the Bears leading receiver on the night from 5 yards out to make it 27-24.  Gould added another field goal to make it 30-24.

The Eagles had chances in the 4^th quarter, but Michael Vick missed a few throws, and a fake punt didn’t work as the ball was underthrown and Philly turned it over on downs.  The Eagles also went for it on 4^th and 10, and Jeremy Maclin fell after picking up 9 yards just inside. 

Chicago had 372 yards to 330 for Philly.  Both teams had 2 turnovers (Forte’s 2 fumbles for the Bears, a fumble and an interception by the Eagles).  Chicago had a 7 minute edge in time of possession, both teams had 6 penalties.  Cutler was 18 of 32 for 208 yards, Vick was 21 of 38 for 213 and the pick.  Forte added 133 rushing yards for the Bears, while LeSean McCoy had 71 yards for the Eagles. 

The Green Bay Packers put up 45 points, but had to hang on to win 45-38 in San Diego.  Aaron Rodgers showed he is the best in the NFL going 21 of 26 for 247 yards, 4 TDs, and no picks.  The Green Bay offense had 368 net yards, including 26 carries for 136 yards.  Rodgers had 8 carries for 52 yards.  The bad news is those weren’t designed runs as Rodgers was running to keep plays alive and avoid sacks.  He couldn’t avoid every sack as the Chargers got him behind the line of scrimmage 4 times for a total of 15 yards lost. 

The Chargers were even better at moving the ball as they picked up 460 net yards, including 375 net yards through the air.  Phillip Rivers was 26 of 46 for 385 yards and 4 TDs.  But unlike Rodgers who didn’t turn the ball over, Rivers threw 3 picks to lead the NFL with 14 on the season.  Typically not a category you want to lead in.  Mike Tolbert ran hard, carrying the ball 19 times for 83 yards and a touchdown. 

But it was the Green Bay secondary that let the Chargers back into it.  Two defensive touchdowns gave the Packers a 21-7 lead in the first quarter.  But in the 4^th quarter busted coverage let Vincent Jackson alone in the end zone twice to cut the Green Bay lead from 21 to 7.  It looks like the back judge is going to have to cover better, because the safeties clearly couldn’t get there and Tramon Williams looked confused several times about who he should cover.  While the Packers got 2 sacks, Rivers had time on most pass attempts.  Coming off a bye, the defense looked worse than it has all season, and Rivers had been struggling.

In the first quarter, the Chargers took the opening possession at their own 20 and had no problem moving the ball mixing run and pass plays.  The Green Bay defense was getting gashed for big chunks, ending with a 23 yard TD pass from Phillip Rivers to Vincent Jackson capping an 8 play, 4 minute 28 second drive.

Aaron Rodgers is great in good conditions, but the rain was falling in San Diego.  The Packers started at their own 37.  A few passes moved the ball, but it was Rodgers scrambling that moved the chains.  On third down, an interference call gave the Pack first and goal at the 5.  The next play was a TD pass to Jermichael Finley and the game was tied at 7. 

But not for long, as Rivers came out throwing.  On San Diego’s first play Rivers tried to hit Antonio Gates.  The ball was tipped, Charlie Peprah came up with it and weaved 40 yards into the end zone to make it 14-7.   On their next possession, the Chargers had a 3^rd and 4 on their own 41 became a 45 yard pick six, this time Tramon Williams jumped the pass and went in untouched.  The Chargers took over at their own 34 with 1:46 left in the first quarter trailing 21-7.  On third and I from their 43, they went deep to Vincent Jackson and it was first down at the Green Bay 20 to end the first quarter.  The next play, a pass to  Mike Tolbert, resulted in a first and goal at the 8.  The next play was an 8 yard TD run by Tolbert to make it 21-14.

The Packers started at the Green Bay 22.  After a 17 yard run by James Starks, and a holding penalty on the Chargers, the Packers were facing a 4^th and 2 at the San Diego 36.  The pass was incomplete and it was the Chargers turn.  The Chargers moved into Green Bay territory, and Nick Novak connected on a 52 yard field goal to make it 21-17.

The Packers then went on a 5 minute 30 second drive that was a pass to Jordy Nelson on the one and he rolled into the end zone.  The booth review confirmed it and with 18 seconds left in the first half the Packers had a 28-17 lead.  The Chargers took a knee and went to halftime down by 11. 

The Packers started the second half on their own 20.  The rain stopped and the sun came out.  Rodgers did a good job keeping plays alive, and threw perfect passes to Nelson, then Finley.  After taking 6 minutes, 30 seconds off the clock, the drive stalled and Mason Crosby hit a 47 yard field goal to make it 31-17. 

The Chargers took over and converted a 3^rd and 16 with a 17 yard gain to keep the drive alive.  The 7 minute drive resulted in an 11 yard TD pass to Gates to make it 31-24.  But Aaron Rodgers didn’t miss many throws all day, and moved the ball down the field, finding James Jones in the end zone to make it 38-24 with 13:00 left in the 4^th quarter. 

San Diego took over and after a first down run, Desmond Bishop sacked Rivers at the 19.  The 3^rd down throw was low and incomplete and Green Bay started at the 32.  On first down, Rodgers had time and hit Nelson, who took it to the San Diego 4.  Two plays later, it was a 4 yard TD pass to Greg Jennings.  With 10:27 left it was 45-24.  For the game at this point, Rodgers was 20/24, 246 and 4 TDs.

The Chargers had no problem moving the ball down the field and Vincent Jackson was open in the end zone to make it 45-31 with 7:32 left.  This is when a championship team wants to at a minimum take time off the clock, and ideally take time off the clock and score.  But the Packers didn’t get a chance as the onside kick was batted by Nelson and recovered by the Chargers at the San Diego 45.  Two plays later, Rivers finds Vincent Jackson in the end zone and it was 45-38 with 6:25 left.  And the rain was falling.  The Packers had 10 up for an onside kick, leaving just Charles Woodson back.  With no blocking, Woody was stopped at the Green Bay 8 yard line.  On third and 7, the Packers tried to get it to Jennings but it fell incomplete and the Chargers got the ball at their 48 with 4:48 left in the game. 

The Chargers went for it on 4^th and 3 with 3:32 left.  Rivers was under pressure, but Gates stopped and Woody ran into him for interference at the Green Bay 35.  Rivers was in the pocket, and was called for intentional grounding, setting up a 3^rd and 17.  Clay Matthews brought the pressure and it was 4^th and 17.  The Chargers showed punt at the 42 and it was downed at the Green Bay 4 with 2:59 left. 

The Packers tried 2 running plays, then looked to throw on 3^rd down.  Aaron was hit on the throw and the pass went out of bounds. But a defensive holding call gave the Packers an automatic first down.  The Chargers were out of time outs, and James Starks was stuffed on 3^rd and 2.  The Chargers had the ball on their own 31 with 1:05 left.  First down was an incomplete pass.  But Rivers found Gates on second down at midfield.  It was 3^rd and 10 after 2 incompletions with :44 seconds left, and although the pass was incomplete, Woody was flagged for pass interference at the Packers 41.  First down was incomplete, and on second down Rivers looked downfield and found Charlie Peprah at the Green Bay 18.  Peprah couldn’t get the pick six, but he did return it to the San Diego 3, and the Packers ran out the clock and came away with a 45-38 win. 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 8

In this issue:

The Lions are king of the mountain in Denver

The Vikings improve to 1-1 with Christian Ponder at quarterback

Detroit had lost 2 straight at home, but stopped the bleeding in Denver as the Lions crushed the Broncos 45-10.  The Lions started fast and had a 24-3 lead at halftime.  The game was over heading into the 4^th quarter with Detroit up 38-3.  The stats were closer than the score, with total yards at 376 for Detroit to 312 for Denver.  The time of possession was almost even as Denver had it for about a minute more.  The big plays on defense made the difference.  Detroit had a 24 yard fumble return and a 100 yard interception return for two of their touchdowns.  Overall, it was 3 turnovers for the Broncos to none for the Lions.

After so many seasons of futility, including an 0-16 season a few years ago, most people were OK with Detroit having a good season.  But as the season has gone on, the trash talking and taunting has become a story.  They are a better team, but they aren’t handling their success very well.  And they still have holes, especially with Jahvid Best coming off a concussion.  Rushing offense and pass defense will keep the Lions from going far this year.  After feeling good for them early in the year, it’s better to watch them lose. 

The Vikings hung with Carolina, took the lead with 2:43 left in the 4^th quarter, and held on to beat the Panthers 24-21.  Both teams moved the ball, and turnovers were close (2 for Carolina to 1 for Minnesota).  Both rookie quarterbacks played well.  The difference was a Ryan Longwell 31 yard field goal that Olindo Mare couldn’t match as his 31 yard attempt went wide left. 

The Panthers showed some Southern hospitality early in the game, as the opening kickoff was returned 78 yards and the Vikings first play was at the Carolina 25.  But 3 plays went nowhere and Ryan Longwell missed a 45 yard field goal.  The Panthers took over at their 35, but Cam Newton fumbled and Jared Allen recovered at the 16.  Two plays later Percy Harvin ran the ball in from the 11 to make it 7-0 Minnesota. 

After trading punts, the Panthers went on a 9 play, 90 yard drive to tie it at 7.  Steve Smith caught the ball on the 1 and rolled into the end zone, and replay put the ball on the one.  Cam Newton then found Jeremy Shockey in the end zone on second down.  The Vikings went 3 and out, and got a 15 yard personal foul penalty as Percy Harvin kept the play going after the whistle.  The Panthers took over at the Minnesota 49.  After running for a first down at the 39, Newton missed Shockey, then found Greg Olsen for a 39 yard TD pass to make it 14-7.

The Vikings were driving and Percy Harvin caught the ball at the 5, but it was taken away before he hit the ground.  Leslie Frazier challenged the ruling, but replay confirmed the fumble.  The Panthers were driving, but Jared Allen forced a fumble and Chad Greenway recovered on the Panthers 39.  Ponder hit Adrian Peterson on a 20 yard gain and took their second timeout with 50 seconds left.  From the 19, Ponder dumped it off to Peterson who took it to the end zone and with 42 seconds left in the first half it was tied at 14. 

The Panthers drove into Minnesota territory in the 3^rd quarter.  Newton’s pass into triple coverage in the end zone fell incomplete, and on third down Newton took advantage of his second chance and found Steve Smith for a 22 yard touchdown.  The Vikings answered with a 90 yard drive capped off by a 9 yard Adrian Peterson touchdown run to tie it up at 21.  The Panthers gave the Vikings the ball back, moving the chains with runs by Adrian Peterson and Ponder finding Percy Harvin few times.  But the drive stalled and Longwell hit a field goal to put the Vikings up by 3 with 2:43 left in the 4^th quarter. 

Carolina needed to score, but were facing 4^th and 14.  Newton hit on a long catch and run that put the ball in field goal range.  A few plays later Newton ran to the 2.  But holding moved the ball back and the Panthers settled for a field goal attempt by Olindo Mare.  Attempt being the key word as Mare was wide left on the 31 yard kick and Minnesota ran out the clock. 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 4 Recap

In this issue:

The Vikings find a new way to lose

The Lions come back from a bigger hole

The Bears score a lot thanks to defense and special teams

The Packers are one of two unbeatens

After 3 weeks of running out to double digit first half leads only to give it all back and more, the Minnesota Vikings found a new way to lose:  trail at halftime.  The Vikings went to Kansas City and trailed 9-7 at the half, and 22-17 when time expired to drop to 0-4.  The Chiefs improved to 1-3, because someone had to win (fortunately there was no tie or overtime).  Total yards were about even (350 to 341 in favor of KC).  Minnesota had 151 yards rushing, but can’t move the ball through the air, again, generating just 190 net passing yards.  Quarterback Donovan McNabb said “it’s frustrating”. 

I’d like to thank a reader for pointing out a mistake in the Week 3 recap with the Minnesota scores by half.  I do try to get the facts right, and while I was wrong in that article, the facts are this:  Minnesota lost 22-17, they had another game of under 200 net yards passing, and they are now 0-4.  It’s not all Donovan McNabb’s fault, with no Sidney Rice it’s pretty easy to take away Shiancoe and Harvin and nobody else is stepping up at this point.  At one point in his career he was an elite quarterback, getting the Eagles to the playoffs year after year with mediocre receivers—didn’t have a good receiver until TO.  But he got kicked out of Philly and Washington the last two seasons for a reason.  It’s time to ponder Ponder.

The Chicago Bears scored on offense, defense and special teams and held on to beat the Carolina Panthers 34-29.  Devin Hester had his 11^th career punt return for a TD and D. J. Moore had a 20 yard interception return.  After the Bears ran 23 times in the last two weeks, they had 31 carries for 224 yards led by Matt Forte’s 25 carries for 205 yards.  But the Bears had just 93 net passing yards and only 17 passes.  The offense is still a problem.

But it’s not the only problem as the Panthers had 543 total net yards, including 374 yards passing.  Cam Newton ran for a TD and threw for another one.  The Bears have given up huge yardage (and points) to the Packers, Saints, and now the Panthers.  Then again, nobody has slowed down the Packers or Saints this season.  The Bears took a 10-3 lead, then 24-10.  It was 34-23 when Carolina scored a touchdown in the closing seconds and cut it to 34-29.  The win kept the Bears two games behind the Packers and Lions, setting up the Week 5 Monday Night game between the Bears and Lions. 

Tony Romo has been a key factor in four wins this season, two for the Cowboys, one for the Jets, and Sunday for the Detroit Lions, who came back from a 27-3 deficit to win 34-30.  Much like the Jets game where late turnovers proved to be the difference, he threw two pick sixes, and had a third pick that led to a TD in Detroit’s second big time comeback win in 2 weeks.  Last week they trailed the Vikings by 20, this time it was 24.

Dallas had a big edge in total yards (434 to 303) and time of possession (almost 14 minutes more than the Lions) but the lead in turnovers (3 to 1) got Detroit back in it.  A pick six doesn’t do much for time of possession, but it’s still a touchdown on the scoreboard.  Detroit couldn’t run very well, but Matthew Stafford found Calvin Johnson for 2 TDs to go with the defensive scores and a few field goals.  For the second time in four weeks, the Cowboys snared defeat from the jaws of victory.  For the 3^rd time in 4 weeks, the Lions came from behind on the road.  For the 4^th time in 4 weeks, they won.  There are only two teams 4-0, and they are both in the NFC North. 

The Packers had no problem scoring, and cruised to a 49-23 win over the Broncos joining the Lions as the only undefeated teams in the NFL.  Aaron Rodgers had a huge game, throwing 4 touchdown passes and running in two more.  He ended up 29 of 38 for 409 yards and a pick to go with the 4 TDs.  The Packers had 507 net yards, turned the ball over on downs once, and punted once.  They scored on 6 offensive possessions and an interception return for a TD by Charles Woodson.

In the first quarter, the Broncos went 3 and out on their first possession.  The Packers got the ball and moved the ball downfield, all through the air.  On 4^th and 1 from the Denver 12, the Packers tried their first running play of the game, tried the right side, and lost a yard.  The Broncos put together a good drive ending in a field goal to go up 3-0.  The Packers wasted no time in taking the lead.  A 6 play, 79 yard drive was capped off with a 50 yard TD pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson.  On Denver’s next possession, Kyle Orton’s third down throw was a pick six for Charles Woodson to make it 14-3 Green Bay.  Woody knew it was coming, and knew what to do with it when he got it.  A sign of good preparation.

Speaking of good preparation, the Broncos were playing back on the kickoff, so Mason Crosby went with an onside kick that was recovered by Nelson.  Seven plays later, Aaron Rodgers scored to make it 21-3.  On the play, Brian Dawkins hit Donald Driver’s leg, and Driver was taken off on a cart.  Driver returned in the second half.

But the Broncos scored in 4 plays, the big play being a flea flicker from Orton to Brandon Lloyd.  The TD pass from Orton to Eric Decker made it 21-10.  Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller got good pressure on Rodgers and it was a 3 and out.  Kyle Orton had a 50 yard pass taken away due to an illegal hands to the face penalty.  But they gained 15 on 3^rd and 7, and kept the drive alive at mid-field.  On 3^rd and 3 Orton was able to run for a 1^st down.  On 2^nd and 6, Orton hits Decker on a 33 yard TD pass and it was 21-17.  But the Packers answered with 24 seconds left in the second quarter on a 16 yard TD pass from Rodgers to Jennings, capping an 80 yard drive to make it 28-17 at the half. 

In the second half, James Jones kept the opening drive alive with a diving catch on 3^rd and 13.  The drive continued with an interference call on 3^rd and 7.  John Kuhn went for 3 yards on 3^rd and one from 12, setting up first and goal at the 9.  Rodgers scrambled to the 8 on first down, and was ruled short on a second down run, but Mike McCarthy challenged and replay showed it as a TD, putting Green Bay up 35-17.

The Broncos took over at their own 34 and had no problem moving the ball down the field with Orton throwing and Willis McGahee carrying the ball.  But Desmond Bishop stripped the ball from Daniel Fells inside the 10, and Morgan Burnett returned the ball to the Green Bay 14.  On 2^nd and 16 Randall Cobb broke a few tackles and took the ball to the Broncos 31.  After James Starks moved the chains, Rodgers found James Jones in the end zone to put Green Bay up 42-17.  The Broncos did nothing and punted back to the Packers on the first play of the 4^th quarter.  A tipped pass resulted in a Denver interception.  On their first play at the Green Bay 40, Orton went deep to Brandon Lloyd, and he found Sam Shields instead.  His return put the ball on the Denver 46.  James Starks broke free for a 23 yard run, and the Packers tried to run some clock.  On third down Rodgers found Donald Driver in the end zone to make it 49-17.  The Broncos moved the ball down the field and on 4^th and goal, Daniel Fells was standing in the end zone and caught Orton’s pass to make it 49-23.  The 2 point conversion was no good.

Matt Flynn took over at QB and Alex Green took over at running back.  Flynn’s first pass was tipped and Denver intercepted, returned to mid-field.  But Orton’s third down pass was tipped and intercepted by Charlie Peprah and the Packers ran out the clock.

The Packers go to Atlanta to play the Falcons in the Sunday Night Football game in Week 6. 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 3 Recap

In this issue

The Vikings take folding to a new level

The Packers remain the best team in the NFL

The script is the same every week.  Get a double digit lead in the first half, and find a way to give it all back and more.  This time, the Detroit Lions were able to overcome a 20-0 halftime deficit and left the Metrodome with a 26-23 overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings.  In three games, the Vikings outscored their opponent 54-6 in the first half.  And they were outscored 76-7 in the second half.

Adrian Peterson and the Vikings were held to 2 field goals for their first 2 scores, but scored 2 TDs to take a big lead at halftime.  Matthew Stafford was held to under 100 yards in the first half, and most possessions were 3 and out.  But in the second half, momentum shifted to the Lions as Matthew Stafford hit Brandon Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson for big gains and TDs.  The Vikings had some curious play calls in the second half, where on 3^rd and a yard and a half they threw, and on 4^th and one they handed off to Toby Gerhart.  They still have this Peterson guy…

The Lions ended up with 358 total yards to 321 for the Vikings.  Neither team turned the ball over.  Detroit had a 7 minute advantage in time of possession.  That’s surprising, given that Minnesota dominated the first half, and the Lions ran just 19 times for 20 yards.  The Vikings were much better on the ground, gaining 132 yards on 23 carries.  Donovan McNabb passed for 189 net yards compared to 338 yards passing for Stafford.  McNabb’s season passing yards are less than Tom Brady’s week one total against the Dolphins.  But hey, the traffic around the Metrodome should be getting less congested as the season goes on and fans quit going to the game.

Then there’s the oldest rivalry in the NFL, the Packers against the Bears.  Unlike the Vikings, the Packers took an early lead and never trailed, beating Chicago 27-17.  Green Bay went 80 yards on 8 plays to go up 7-0 on the opening drive, the first of 3 Aaron Rodgers to Jermichael Finley TD passes.  It was 14-0 Green Bay before Chicago got on the board with a 4 yard Jay Cutler pass to Dane Sanzenbacher.  Both teams kicked a field goal in the last 2 minutes to make it 17-10 at the half.  The Pack got a field goal in the 3^rd, and another TD pass to Finley early in the 4^th to go up 27-10.  But the Bears came right back with a 32 yard TD pass to Kellen Davis to make it 27-17 with over 11 minutes left.  There were several anxious moments, but the Pack held on.

The Bears had concerns over protecting Cutler—he was sacked 11 times the first 2 weeks.  So the idea was to get Matt Forte the ball and try to let the running game help Cutler.  But 12 carries for 13 yards including 3 runs by Cutler didn’t exactly take pressure off the passing game.  Matt Forte had 9 carries for 2 yards, but did manage 80 yards on 7 receptions. 

Still, holding the Bears to one yard per carry put the pressure on Cutler to win the game.  There are times he can do that, but usually not against good teams.  Cutler ended up 21 of 37 for 302 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 picks.  Aaron Rodgers had another outstanding game for the Packers, going 28 of 38 for 297 yards, 3 TDs and one INT, his first turnover of the season.  The running game got 100 yards on 29 carries.  Not great, but it sure beats 12 carries for 13 yards.  Ryan Grant was good, gaining 92 yards on 17 carries.

A few plays got the Bears, and their fans, upset in the 4^th quarter.  First, Charles Woodson made contact with Devin Hester with the ball in the air.  Since he wasn’t playing the ball, that’s pass interference.  But no flag on the play, much to the surprise of Hester, the coaches, and the fans.  The other play also involved Hester.  The Packers punted, Hester faked like he was going to catch the punt, but the ball was on the other side of the field.  Johnny Knox returned it 89 yards for a touchdown, but the play was called back for holding.  The Bears didn’t make enough plays, Rodgers did, and the Pack go the win.

The Packers had a better running game, a better passing game, and overall were the better team.  But Charlie Peprah, a part time safety when Charles Woodson moved from safety to corner, gave up a TD to Kellen Davis.  Plays like that make it obvious Nick Collins isn’t playing.  Woodson played safety with Morgan Burnett in the base defense with Sam Shields joining Tramon Williams at corner.  In the nickel, Woodson moved to corner and Peprah came in at safety.  It worked pretty well, especially with three sacks and other hurries forcing Cutler into mistakes.  But there were also a few roughing the passer penalties, one by Erik Walden that was obvious, another that looked questionable.  Right tackle Bryan Bulaga was injured and replaced by Marshall Newhouse.  Newhouse looked good, but it was telling that the Bears didn’t move DE Julius Peppers to test Newhouse.  The Bears thought that keeping Peppers at right DE against LT Chad Clifton was better for them than moving him to left DE to take on a backup.  But the result was a win, a 3-0 record and 1^st place in the NFC North (tied with the Lions). 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 1 Recap

In this issue:

The Pack Hangs On

The Bears Take Advantage of Home Field

The Lions Look Good on the Road

The Vikings can’t finish in San Diego

In the best game of the week and probably one of the best all season, the Green Bay Packers played from ahead the whole game and found a way to hang on to beat the New Orleans Saints 42-34.  Both teams had big offensive games, and both teams had a special teams touchdown.  But it was a defensive stop on the 1 yard line on the last play of the game that prevented the Saints from potentially tying the game with a 2 point conversion and sending the game into overtime.

The Packers had no problem early, jumping out to a 21-7 lead at the end of the first quarter.  All the scoring was via TD passes:  Aaron Rodgers hit Greg Jennings on a 7 yard TD pass, Jordy Nelson on a 3 yard TD pass, and a 32 yard TD pass to rookie Randall Cobb on a play that Cobb later said he didn’t run the right route.  Before Cobb’s TD, Drew Brees hit Robert Meachem on a 32 yard TD pass.  The scoring slowed a little for Green Bay in the second quarter, managing just a James Starks 17 yard TD run at the two minute warning after the Saints had scored on a John Kasay 30 yard field goal and a 72 yard punt return by Darren Sproles.  The Pack had a 28-17 lead at halftime. 

In the second half, the Saints cut the lead to 28-20, but Cobb returned the ensuing kickoff 108 yards to put the Pack up 35-20.  That was another mistake, he wasn’t supposed to return anything deeper than 5 yards in the end zone.  Maybe he can keep making mistakes every game.  The Saints answered with a 29 yard TD pass to Devery Henderson.  The Packers proved it was still legal to score on a running play, the only running TD of the game when John Kuhn went in from a yard out with 11:50 left in the 4^th quarter.  The Saints cut it to 42-34 with 2:15 left in the 4^th quarter.  The Packers wanted to run the clock out, but couldn’t convert a 3^rd and 4 and had to give the Saints the ball back.  The last play of regulation fell incomplete in the end zone, but the Pack was flagged for interference, giving the Saints one last chance to get into the end zone.  Mark Ingram couldn’t get there as the Saints O line had no surge and the Packers defense made the play.

Neither defense made many plays as the Packers ran for 103 yards on 27 carries, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 315 yards and 3 TDs.  The Saints ran the ball 21 times for 81 yards, and Drew Brees threw for 419 yards and 3 TDs.  The only turnover of the game, a New Orleans fumble at their own 36 yard line, resulted in the Packers 2^nd score of the night.  The Packers came up with 2 huge stops:  a 4^th and 1 at the 6, and the last play of the game.

Is there reason to be worried about the defense?  In a word, no.  First, the Packers won’t face another offense that good all season except maybe the Chargers in San Diego.  Second, Dom Capers has proven he can win with backups, and other than Mike Neal not playing, it was all starters.  So while it wasn’t a great night, the defense gave up 27 points even though they blew a few coverages and missed a number of tackles—things that are fixable.  They also sacked Brees 3 times.  But without Johnny Jolly and Cullen Jenkins, someone on the D line has to step up and get some pressure on the quarterback.  Jarius Wynn had a sack, hopefully he can continue to get pressure on the quarterback.  Now they have 10 days between games and can get things fixed before playing against rookie Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

The Chicago Bears played one of the better teams on their schedule, the Atlanta Falcons, at Soldier Field and came away with a 30-12 win.  Brian Urlacher had a diving interception and a fumble recovery for a touchdown.  The defense dominated throughout, and Jay Cutler threw the ball well as he ended up 22 of 32 for 312 yards and 2 TDs.  Total yards were almost even (386 to 377) but most of Atlanta’s yards came when they were down big and trying to catch up.  Both Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler threw an interception, but the Falcons also lost 2 fumbles.  Atlanta’s only touchdown was a 50 yard interception return, and they missed the extra point.  

Cutler spread the ball around to his receivers, with Matt Forte leading the way with 5 receptions, 4 for Roy Williams, 3 for Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, 2 for Kellen Davis, Earl Bennett and Matt Spaeth, and 1 for Dane Sanzenbacher.  While they were held to 88 yards on 27 carries, they still had a 6 minute advantage in time of possession.  The Bears took advantage of playing a good team at home.  While the offense is still a question mark, the defense is for real.

The Detroit Lions fell behind 10-3 but rallied to win 27-20 over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Down 13-6 the Lions went for it on 4^th down, and Calvin Johnson didn’t stop at a first down, he went in for the touchdown from 36 yards out to tie it at 13.  Matthew Stafford threw 2 more TDs, and the Lions held off a late Tampa Bay rally.  The Lions had 431 total yards to 313 for the Bucs.  Both teams had an interception, Tampa Bay fumbled, Detroit didn’t.  Detroit ended a 26 game road losing streak at Tampa last year and got out to a 1-0 road record in 2011. 

The Lions have some playmakers in Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Ndamukong Suh and all had big games.  The 2011 first round draft pick, Nick Fairley, didn’t play, but could be another impact player before the season is over. 

The Minnesota Vikings jumped ahead 17-7, but the Chargers scored 17 unanswered points to win 24-17.  Kicker Nick Keading was injured on the opening kickoff that Percy Harvin returned for a TD.  That changed strategy in the second quarter when what normally would have been a field goal became a 4^th down offensive play that didn’t work.  But in the second half, punter Mike Scifres kicked his first ever NFL field goal, a 40 yarder.

The Chargers had 31 first downs to 10 for the Vikings, 407 total yards to 187, and had the ball 14 minutes more than the Vikings.  That’s almost a full quarter.  The good news for Minnesota is that Adrian Peterson signed a contract extension late last week.  The bad news for Peterson is he signed a contract extension with the Vikings.  Peterson had 16 carries for 98 yards, but Donovan McNabb had just 39 yards passing.  A bad O line and a quarterback that 2 teams gave up on in the last 2 years didn’t look very good.  There’s still 15 games left and it’s possible they get better.  But it’s also possible they don’t.

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

2010 Season Wild Card Weekend Recap

In this issue:

The Seahawks shock Payton and the Saints

The Jets beat Peyton and the Colts

The Ravens roll over the Chiefs

The Pack fly out of Philly with a win

OK, I guess I missed this one.  New Orleans by 17 was the prediction.  Seattle by 5 was the result, coming out on top 41-36.  Must have been a rounding error in the calculations.  Or a ball carrying error by Julius Jones, whose fumble resulted in a Seattle touchdown after the Saints started out the game with a 10-0 lead (and again led by 10 at 17-7).  Or a defensive error that let Marshawn Lynch run 67 yards on touchdown run that saw essentially the entire offensive unit including Matt Hasselbeck run down the field with him.  Replay showed 8 missed tackles, including a Shane Falco-like effort to throw off a would-be tackler. 

The Saints had allowed just 13 TD passes in 16 regular season games.  But there was nothing regular about this game, when the team that had been blown out 9 times this season proved they were tired of hearing about how they didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs, and didn’t deserve to host a game.  The 12^th man was vocal throughout, and it was a defensive failure by New Orleans that allowed that to happen.  It was puzzling that the Saints put no pressure on Hasselbeck, just one sack for a 6 yard loss.  Gregg Williams, the defensive coordinator, was aggressive during last season’s run to the Super Bowl but didn’t blitz as often as expected.  When the Saints did blitz, the Seahawks did a good job of picking it up.  Hasselbeck got knocked down a few times, but the ball was already out.  Seattle receivers did a good job of making the first tackler miss and getting extra yards.  The offense put up 36, which should be enough to win.

For the game, New Orleans had 474 net yards to 415 for Seattle.  Both teams had a turnover, the Saints came up with an interception on a tipped pass, and the Seahawks recovered the Jones fumble.  Penalty yardage was identical, 39 yards assessed against each team.  Matt Hasselbeck had his best game of the season as he threw 4 TD passes.  The two big plays of the game, the Jones fumble that got the Seahawks back into the game, and the Lynch run through the defense both went in favor of Seattle.  So did the final score. 

The Colts were the home team and the favorite, but the Jets are advancing to play the Patriots next week as Nick Folk hit a 32 yard field goal as time expired to give the Jets a 17-16 win.  Unlike the high scoring NFC Saturday game where defense wasn’t a factor, it was in this game.  The Jets still gained 353 net yards and the Colts totaled 312, but the scoreboard operator was able to grab a snack, text a few friends, and take a nap without much trouble in the first half.  The Colts took a 7-0 lead into halftime, but had to settle for 3 Adam Vinatieri field goals in the second half, the last one a 50 yarder coming with 53 second left in the 4^th quarter.  But Antonio Cromartie returned the kickoff to the Jets 46, and Mark Sanchez made some clutch throws to set up Folk for the game winner.  Peyton Manning had slightly better stats than Sanchez, but only threw for 225 yards to 189 for Sanchez.  While he didn’t throw an interception and had a good completion percentage, he didn’t have the big game the Colts needed to advance. 

The Chiefs had a 7-3 lead at the end of the first quarter, but it was all Baltimore after that as the Ravens won 30-7.  It was pretty one sided even after one as the Raves ran 27 plays to just 5 for the Chiefs, although one of KC’s plays was a 41 yard Jamal Charles TD run.  The Ravens forced 5 turnovers, 3 picks and 2 fumbles.  The Ravens finished with 2 lost fumbles, one of them was on an interception return.

Baltimore dominated the stats, including 390 net yards to 161 for KC.  Matt Cassel was 9 of 18 for just 70 yards and 3 interceptions.  Joe Flacco was 25 of 34 for 265 yards, no picks, and 2 touchdowns.  Baltimore had 40 carries for 142 yards compared to 19 carries for 109 yards for the Chiefs.  But the +3 turnovers and huge yardage advantage resulted in a time of possession advantage for Baltimore of almost 42 minutes to just over 18 minutes for the Chiefs.  A total of 74 offensive plays for Baltimore to just 37 for KC (exactly half the plays).  The KC defense allowed 20 second half points and the offense came up with nothing.  The Ravens move on to face Pittsburgh in the Divisional game.

The Green Bay – Philly game was the most hyped game of the weekend, and it lived up to expectations, with the Packers coming away with a 21-16 victory.  The Packers combined some long scoring drives with enough defense to hold off the Philly second half comeback.  There were some new faces in the starting lineups for the Packers.  The Green Bay defensive line was back to the regular starters as Cullen Jenkins joined BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett.  The offensive line had Chad Clifton starting the game at right tackle and Bryan Bulaga at left tackle early in the game before switching back. 

The Eagles took the opening kickoff and started on their own 13 yard line.  On first down Desmond Bishop came in and sacked Michael Vick at the 5, but on 2^nd down they gained 18 yards as Clay Matthews fell down in coverage.  On 3^rd down, Vick rolled but Erik Walden stopped him short.  Brandon Underwood was blocking during the punt, the ball hit him and the Eagles got the ball back.  It looked like he might have been pushed into the ball, but he shouldn’t have been close.  After a first down, the Eagles were stopped on 3^rd down, and David Akers pulled the 41 yard field goal wide right.

But the Packers couldn’t move the chains as the 3^rd down pass went through Greg Jenning’s hands and the Packers had to punt.  Tim Masthay pinned the Eagles at their own 9.  The Eagles moved the ball, a penalty moved them back, and on 3^rd down Philly fumbled but recovered.  The Packers started with decent field position at their own 32.  James Starks broke free on first down for a first down.  The drive stayed alive when the Eagles were offside on 3^rd and 4.  Starks had a gain of 9 on second and 7 and it was first down on the Eagles 19.  A third down pass to John Kuhn made it 1^st and goal at the 7.  On first down, Aaron Rodgers found Tom Crabtree for the touchdown, and the 1^st quarter ended 7-0.

DeSean Jackson went to the locker room in the 1^st quarter, and the Eagles offense struggled (although he returned late in the first half).  A Clay Matthews sack got the ball back for the Packers.  On 3^rd and one, Kuhn fumbled but recovered and had enough for a first down.  The Packers kept the drive alive and a Rodgers scramble made it first and goal at the 9.  On first down, Rodgers rolled right and found James Jones in the end zone to make it 14-0.  The Eagles red zone defense was bad all season and it didn’t improve against the Packers. 

On the next possession, Vick moved the ball and Philly got on the board with an Akers field goal.  As time was running out, Rodgers hit James Jones in stride for what should have been a TD, but it was dropped and the Packers end up not scoring.  The last 20 seconds on the clock ran off even though the Packers had a time out remaining and the ball near mid field.  The Packers had a 14-3 lead at halftime.

Green Bay started with the ball in the 3^rd quarter, but lost possession on a Rodgers fumble recovered by the Eagles at the Green Bay 24.  Two plays later Vick found Jason Avant in the end zone for a touchdown to make it 14-10.  The Packers started at the Green Bay 20, and a few passes to Driver put the ball on the Philly 49.  A Starks run of 19 yards put the ball on the 30.  Rodgers had time, found Kuhn on a catch and run to the 9.  A holding call puts the ball on the 16, but a screen pass to Jackson went the distance and Green Bay took a 21-10 lead. 

The Eagles moved the ball into Green Bay territory, but a poor pass to Avant and a drop by Avant led to a punt by Sav Rocca downed at the Green Bay 2.  After a 3 and out, the Eagles got the ball back at their 46.  On third and 14, a 21 yard pass to Avant gave the Eagles the ball on the Green Bay 37.  Two plays later it was 1^st and 10 at the 23.  The Pack held on 3^rd and 2, and Akers missed a 34 yard field goal and the Packers were still up 21-10.  Philly got the ball back with 8:50 left in the 4^th quarter after a 3 and out  by Green Bay, a curious call on 3^rd and one trying to get Kuhn wide that lost 3 yards.

Philly started on their 25, and Vick hit Jackson for a gain to the 44.  Vick then found McCoy for a gain to the Green Bay 45.  Vick avoided a sack on an incompletion, but found McCoy and got the ball to the 19.  Brent Celek set up a first and goal at the 3.  A quarterback draw was stopped for no gain.  The second down pass was incomplete, and the 3^rd down run by Vick was stopped on the 1.  Philly went for it on 4^th down and Vick got in with 4:02 left.  The two point conversion was no good as Celek stepped out of bounds and was the first player to touch the ball, resulting in illegal touching.  They tried again from the 7.  This time, the pressure got to Vick and the pass was incomplete. 

The Packers had a 21-16 lead and the ball at the Green Bay 22 with 4 minutes left.  Philly took a time out with 3:54 left after a 3 yard run by Starks.  The second down run was a 12 yard gain by Starks, and Philly used their last time out with 3:48 left.  Starks showed great ball security, with the ball against his body, and his off hand covering the ball when contact was made.  But on third down, Rodgers was sacked.  Masthay had a good punt, and there was a holding call on Philly.  With 1:45 left and no time outs, the Eagles started at their own 34, needing a touchdown.  Charlie Peprah had to get around the umpire on the completion to Jackson and the Eagles had a first down on the Green Bay 38.

First down was incomplete to Celek, second down was incomplete to McCoy.  Third down was a catch by Riley Cooper for a first down.  But on the next play, Tramon Williams gets the pick and the Packers ran out the clock.  Williams thought he was down in the end zone, but the whistle didn’t blow and Charlie Peprah ran over and Williams finally went down at the 4. 

James Starks set a Green Bay rookie record with 23 carries for 123 yards.  The Pack had 138 yards rushing and 171 net yards passing.  The Eagles had 82 yards rushing and 270 net yards passing.  The Packers lost 2 fumbles, Vick was picked once.  Green Bay had 32 rushing plays and 27 passing plays.  Philly had 21 rushes and 36 passes.  Vick was held to 33 yards rushing, although he threw for 292 yards and a TD.

A few comments going into the Divisional Round.  James Jones needs stick-um, just look at what it did for Clifford Franklin.  The drops aren’t anything new, it’s a season long trend, and the Packers are better off with him on the bench.  James Starks is the best running back on the active roster (Ryan Grant is on IR).  John Kuhn can get a yard or two, but he’s a role player.  Brandon Jackson is good in pass blocking, pass receiving, and occasionally running wide.  Starks should be the featured back.  His ball protection looks like Tiki Barber after he stopped fumbling.  And rookie Sam Shields is playing so well at corner that even against top receivers like DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, Shields and Tramon Williams were in coverage so Charles Woodson could “spy” Michael Vick.  Most teams don’t have two receivers that good, so the Packers have some options.  Finally, Clay Matthews got a starting offensive tackle benched in a playoff game.  You don’t see that very often…

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

2010 Season Wild Card Weekend

In this issue:

The Saints travel to Seattle

The Jets visit Indy

The Ravens head to KC

The Packers play in Philly

The Saints haven’t been as impressive this season as they were last season, but they are still a dangerous team.  You can’t say that about Seattle, a team that has lost 9 times this season by 15 points or more.  The one thing Seattle has is the 12^th man, one of the best home field advantages in the NFL with the crowd noise they generate.  But when you’re getting blown out, the 12^th man is pretty quiet.  The Seahawks are near the bottom of the NFL in most offensive and defensive categories.  The reason is they’re not good.  This game won’t be close, New Orleans by at least 17.

The Jets started out the season as everyone’s favorite to win the AFC.  They got out to a 9-2 start, but faded to 10-6.  Good enough for the playoffs, but not a division title as the Patriots turned it up a notch, including a rout over the Jets in the second meeting.  Indy has had as many key injuries as Green Bay, but fortunately for the Colts, Peyton Manning wasn’t one of them.  It hasn’t been a typical season for the Colts numbers wise, but it has regarding winning the division and making the playoffs. 

Early in the season, the Jets dominated with defense, and when Mark Sanchez played well and LT was running well, the offense was pretty good.  However, as the season went on, the Jets got lit up a few times, like 45 point by the Patriots and 38 points by the Bears.  The Pats score against everybody, but the Bears?  And the offense has been slumping at the end of the season, other than the 34 against the Bears.  Like 3 against the Pats and shut out by the Packers.

The Colts were fighting for a playoff spot going into the last week of the season, and found a way to get it done.  But the defense is bad, and they have no running game.  Still, they are at home and have Peyton Manning and the replacements (no, not Shane Falco, other replacements).  It’s hard to get a read on what New York team will show up.  If they run the ball and can stop the Colts passing game with what is supposed to be shut down corners, they have a chance.  With Peyton Manning, the Colts usually have a chance (except for the few games when he was throwing 3 and 4 interceptions).  So who wins?  It’s a coin flip, but with the Colts injuries, I’ll take the Jets by 6.

The Ravens play the Chiefs in the other AFC Wild Card game, with KC the division winner and Baltimore the visiting Wild Card.  The Ravens have been in some physical games this year, including both games against the Steelers.  If this game is physical, it will be the Ravens dominating the Chiefs.  KC is an excellent rushing team, and Cassel and Bowe have hooked up a lot this season, but they aren’t a great passing team.  Defensively, they give up points, but are much better at home. 

John Harbaugh (Jim’s brother-Jim is getting the press right now even though John is still coaching in the playoffs and Jim is just job hunting) has had playoff coaching experience, making the playoffs after the last 3 seasons.  This is Todd Haley’s first playoff game as head coach, but with coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weiss, there is a lot of playoff coaching experience on the staff.  Of course, Charlie is on his way back to college after accepting the offensive coordinator position at Florida, and that could be a problem.  Actually, Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense will be more of a problem.  Tough to see Kansas City matching up with Baltimore.  KC’s good season comes to an end.  Ravens by 9.

The Packers head back to Philly in a rematch of a Week 1 game the Pack won by 7.  There have been a few changes since then, like 15 players on IR for Green Bay.  The running game hasn’t been consistent since Ryan Grant was hurt, and losing JerMichael Finley was a huge blow to the passing game.  In spite of that, Aaron Rodgers is the highest rated QB in the NFC, and Michael Vick is the second ranked QB in the NFC. 

But the big story is the Green Bay defense, 2^nd in the NFL in fewest points allowed.  Dom Capers has plugged in new D linemen, linebackers and safeties and still gets great results week after week.  Even with a QB presenting the problems Vick does (he is passing better than at any point in his career, and he could always run), there’s no reason to expect Capers won’t be ready.  Especially after watching what worked for the Giants (most of the game) and Vikings.

The numbers the Packers are fighting:  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy both have winning percentages under 33% in games decided by 4 points or less.  This season, four losses were by 3 points and two by 4 points.  The other numbers are coaching records in the Wild Card round.  Andy Reid is 4-1, Mike McCarthy is 0-1.  And the Packers have had some problems in Philly in the playoffs, the last time was a 20-17 win by the Eagles in the game known as 4^th and 26, but was really lost by offensive mistakes. 

The Packers looked great against the Giants, but had some problems against the Bears.  Drops and fumbles by receivers has been an issue this season.  Age has caught up with Donald Driver, and he has had a problem hanging on to the ball.  But James Jones has also had key drops.  The win over the Bears would have been easier had the receivers made a few more catches.  The Eagles were locked in as the 3 seed, so they rested starters last week.  But this week, Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy will be back in the lineup. 

Philly was down big to the Giants, but scored 4 TDs in the last 8 minutes to win, including the winning punt return as time expired.  Then they were 14 point favorites over the Vikings, but lost by 10 after the game was postponed for 2 days due to snow. 

The Eagles are 2 and a half point favorites.  The Packers don’t want a close game, it’s not something they’re good at.  And while it seems like this should be a close game, I believe in Dom.  Unlike last year’s Wild Card game, when the Packers scored 45 but lost because they gave up 51, this time it will be the defense that holds the Eagles well enough to win.  Because Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings will have a big day, and it could be a breakout game for James Starks, assuming he’s practiced well enough to play.  And Cullen Jenkins is back, which will help against both the run and the pass.  Since they can’t win games decided by 4 points or less, the Packers win by 5. 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 17 Recap

In this issue:

The Lions roll, as expected

The Packers beat the Bears, as expected.  

The Lions won their 4^th straight game for the first time since 1999, knocking off the Minnesota Vikings 20-13 at Ford Field.   The only Minnesota touchdown was a Jared Allen pick 6.  Shaun Hill played quarterback for the Lions, and had some big throws to keep drives alive, including a challenged catch by Calvin Johnson.  Replay confirmed the catch, his right forearm hit inbounds before his left knee landed out of play.   Detroit looks much improved over last season, and a few impact players could have them contending for a playoff spot next year.   The Vikings, on the other hand, are in a downward spiral with a lot of questions going into next season. 

The Lions had 357 net yards to just 214 for Minnesota.  Hill was 28 of 39 for 258 yards, a TD and a pick.   Joe Webb was 20 of 32 for 148 yards and an interception. 

The Green Bay offense couldn’t do much against the Bears, but the defense was outstanding and the Packers walked off Lambeau Field with a 10-3 win over the Bears.  Chicago Head Coach Lovie Smith was true to his word and played his starters the whole game.   Dom Capers defense held the Bears to 227 net yards, including just 117 net yards passing.  Jay Cutler was 21 of 39 for 168 yards , threw 2 picks and was sacked 6 times for a quarterback rating of 43.5.   Matt Forte had 15 carries for 91 yards, but 47 of those yards came on 2 carries during the same possession.  The Packers had 284 net yards, only 60 yards rushing in 23 carries.  Aaron Rodgers was 19 of 28 for 229 yards and one TD.   There were several drops that could have made it easier for the Pack to walk out a winner.

On the first possession, the Packers got a first down, but on 3^rd and short Brandon Jackson couldn’t come up with the pass and the Packers punted.  Fortunately, Devin Hester called a fair catch inside the 15.  After 3 plays that did nothing, Brad Maynard got off a good punt that Tramon Williams returned to the Green Bay 34.

On the second series, James Starks moved the chains to the Chicago 43.  Donald Driver was close to another first down, but the ball was knocked out and the Bears recovered.   BJ Raji knocked down the first down pass, Desmond Bishop dropped a pick on 2^nd and 10, and Charles Woodson held Rasheed Davis to a 6 yard catch and no yards after the catch.  Maynard’s next punt rolled out of bounds at the Green Bay 11.   First down was a 25 yard strike from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson.  But Rodgers’ slide was short on 3^rd and 2, and Tim Masthay punted again, this time away from Hester and out of bounds at the Chicago 16. 

Matt Forte had a 25 yard run to pick up Chicago’s first first down, and on the next play picked up another first down at the Green Bay 38.  On third and 8, Jarius Wynn and AJ Hawk sack Jay Cutler at the 45, and Maynard punted again, this time a touchback.   Two James Starks carries moved the chains, and a pass to Driver got another first down at the 41.  Jennings got the ball inside the Chicago 30 on a nice catch and run, but it came back with a Bryan Bulaga hold, a questionable call.  The Bears sacked Rodgers on the next play, and the Packers couldn’t get close to the sticks.   Masthay’s punt was fielded by Hester, but the coverage wasn’t bad and the Bears started on their own 25.  Rasheed Davis had a 22 yard catch and run on first down.   On third and short, Jay Cutler scrambled, then, hit Matt Forte who took the ball to the Green Bay 18.  Two completions to Davis put the ball on the 4.  On third down, Cutler was sacked by Erik Walden, and the Bears had to settle for a 30 yard field goal.  With 4:31 left in the first half, the Bears had a 3-0 lead.

Pat Lee had a good return to the 40, but the Pack had to punt and Hester returned the ball to the Chicago 27.  The Packers forced a 3 and out and got the ball back with 1:45 left at the Packers 17.   Rodgers ran for a first down with 1:15 left.   The Bears got away with an obvious interference call, but got a roughing the passer call on the next play that probably wasn’t.   Greg Jennings dropped what was probably a TD pass at the Bears 30, setting up 3^rd and 4, and that pass was incomplete.  The punt was a touchback, and it was 3-0 at the half. 

The Bears started the second half with a drive to the Packers 40, setting up a 4^th and 2, but the pass was incomplete and Green Bay started with possession at the 40.  On first down, Rodgers was looking for Greg Jennings but found Charles Tillman instead.   Tillman returned the ball to the Green Bay 15.  Mike McCarthy challenged and while it looked like the ball hit the ground and came loose, the play stood.     A holding call and nothing on 1^st and 2nd down made it 3^rd and 19.  Cutler found Charlie Peprah in the end zone and Charlie made the catch.  For the touchback.  Peprah plays for the Packers. 

On 3^rd and 2, Rodgers went deep and overthrew Jennings instead of trying to keep the drive alive.   The Bears got the ball back, and went 3 and out.  So the Pack tried again, starting on the Chicago 44 after a 41 yard return by Tramon Williams.  A pass interference call gave the Pack a first down, and the next play went to Greg Jennings, who put the ball on the 1.  Kuhn was stopped on first down, then Rodgers faked a sneak, lateraled to Jackson, but the lateral was low, and the 3^rd down play was Rodgers stopped at the 5, so Mason Crosby came out and tied it at 3.  The second down play was a good call with poor execution.

The kickoff return went to mid-field, and after a sack, the Bears converted a 3^rd and 15, but the play didn’t count because Lovie Smith took a time out.  When they tried again, Walden got the sack, and Clay Matthews was also in the area.  The 4^th quarter started tied at 3.   But the Packers moved right down the field with a 46 yard pass to Jennings, first and goal at the 1.  On first down, Rodgers hit Donald Lee and it was 10-3 after the extra point.

The Bears had another 3 and out (Dom Capers has done an incredible job given the injuries), and James Starks had a big run called back by holding.  On 3^rd down, Jordy Nelson had a blocker in front, but ran into the defender outside, when cutting it inside would have been a first down.  The punt was downed at the 2.  The Bears got a first down, but back to back sacks by Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews after Woodson stopped a run for no gain resulted in another punt. 

The Pack took over at the Bears 47 with 7:02 left, but couldn’t move the chains.  Masthay’s punt was caught and downed at the 2 by Jarrett Bush.   The Bears had the ball at their own 37 at the 2 minute warning.    They got a first down on Green Bay 48, and the throw to Knox was incomplete with 1:02 left.  On second down, Cutler shot put the ball left handed to Forte for no gain, and it was 3^rd and 10 with 51 seconds left and the Bears take a time out.  They convert the first down to Hester at the Green Bay 32.  But 2 plays later, Cutler finds Nick Collins, and with 10 seconds left the Pack runs out the clock.  And the Packers move on to the playoffs.   

wiGregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 15 Preview

In this issue:

The Lions take their one game winning streak to Tampa

The Bears and Vikings play outdoors Monday Night

The Packers head to New England for a Sunday Night game

Detroit has been competitive this season at home.  Why, just last week they beat the Packers at Ford Field.  They are getting things done with a 3^rd string quarterback.  OK, maybe that was a case of the Packers looking past the Lions and losing their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers in the process.   Detroit’s offense is pretty good with Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill under center.  Not so much with Drew Stanton, generating just 7 points last week.  But the defense held the Packers to the lowest point total of the season:  3.

And while Tampa is finding a way to win, they aren’t exactly dominant.  They score about 20 points a game and give up about 20 points a game.  Their weakness is against the run, giving up 4.7 yards per carry.  But the Lions average just 3.8 yards a carry.   The Lions have had problems stopping their opponents, giving up 24 points while scoring 22. 

As I’ve said most of the season, the Lions are competitive, especially at home.  The game will be played in Tampa, and Detroit struggles a bit on the road.  One of the other quarterbacks would give the Lions a chance to win, but it won’t happen with Drew Stanton.   The line is Tampa by 6.  Tough call, the Lions need to show some offense.  The Bucs win by at least 4, but maybe a lot more.

The Bears and the Vikings meet Monday Night in Minnesota, but with a few changes.  Brett Favre won’t start at quarterback.  Neither will Tarvaris Jackson.  It could be Joe Webb or newly signed Patrick Ramsey.  And it won’t be at the Metrodome, it will be at TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers.   A cold night, with plenty of hot chocolate for everyone.  If the concession stands are ready.  Because it’s at a college field, beer can’t be sold.  Yikes.

The Vikings were crushed by the Giants last week.  They haven’t done anything on offense all season, and scored just 3 points against New York.   Speaking of crushed, the Bears were down 33- 0 at the half as New England was on its way to a 36-7 rout.  In theory, one of them should win.

The Bears luck is back again.  Don’t have to go to the dome and play in the noise.   Brett Favre isn’t playing.  The Vikings  are showing signs that they’ve mailed it in already.  With a win and a Green Bay loss, Chicago clinches the NFC North.  There is no line.  The Vikings might play close for a half, but while the Bears aren’t good, the Vikings are trending to awful.  Chicago by 7 or more.

The Packers head to New England to play the Patriots.  The Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, blowing out the Jets and the Bears the last two weeks by a combined 81-10.  The Packers lost a must win game to the Lions, 7-3. 

Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game last week with a concussion.  This week it wasn’t that he wasn’t allowed to practice.  It was that he didn’t watch film, didn’t go over the game plan, didn’t do anything.  He was left in the dark, he has light sensitivity.  The Packers say the decision as to whether or not he’ll play will be made Saturday.   Sure looks like it’s already been made:  he isn’t playing.

The Patriots aren’t leading the NFL in rushing or passing, but they are an excellent passing team with Tom Brady throwing to Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Ron Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead.  The running game is effective with Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Woodhead.   And while the defense looks pretty bad statistically against the pass, that has changed in recent weeks. 

We could look at the stats, and one that looks like a great matchup is the Patriots lead the league in scoring at about 32 points a game, while the Packers lead the league in scoring defense, giving up 14 and a half points a game.   But the Packers are at a pretty big disadvantage on defense if Cullen Jenkins can’t play, Frank Zombo is out, and some of the linebackers who will be playing (on special teams, and maybe on defense) weren’t in the NFL a few weeks ago. 

The game capsule is this:  Nobody has stopped the Patriots in recent weeks, and it’s hard to see the Packers change that trend with all the injuries on defense.  Not that they could stop the Pat if everyone was playing, but it’s a lot less likely now.  And then there’s “the best defense is a good offense”.  Keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands and the Pats offense can’t score.  The problem is with Matt Flynn playing, the chances of keeping drives alive aren’t very good.   Three and outs and turnovers are more likely than time consuming scoring drives.  Which puts more pressure on the Green Bay defense.  The weather will be cold and windy, and the Pats have shown they can move the ball in those conditions. 

With no consistency at running back (not sure why James Starks only had 8 carries last week), and a QB that hasn’t played much, it’s unlikely the Packers can win a shootout.  Even if Rodgers plays, the Packers will need to be plus 3 or 4 in turnovers to have a chance.   There is no line on the game, but it’s hard to see the Packers staying within 10 if everything goes well.  If not, losing by 21 or more looks very likely. 

Gregor’s Packer Analysis

Week 14 Recap

The Vikings and the Giants get snowed out (temporarily)

The Bears luck continues, then runs out

The Packers look past the Lions and lose

The Blizzard that hit the Midwest this weekend hit the Twin Cities area especially hard.   Hard enough to strand the Giants in Kansas City.  They couldn’t get to Minneapolis.  Hard enough to collapse the roof at the Metrodome.   With the Metrodome unplayable, the game was moved to Ford Field in Detroit Monday Night.

The extra time off wasn’t enough for Brett Favre to get well.  His throwing shoulder (strained AC joint) was the main reason he was inactive, but he also has broken bones in his ankle, and his hand was visibly bruised.  His regular season consecutive games started streak ended at 297, most ever for a quarterback (punter Jeff Feagles has the NFL record).  The Tarvaris Jackson streak is now at 1, and it wasn’t that good as the Giants dominated the Vikings 21-3. 

Jackson was 15 of 30 for 118 yards and a pick.   Brandon Jacobs ran for 116 yards and a TD, Ahmad Bradshaw had 103 yards rushng and a TD.  Wide Receiver Hakeem Nicks returned to the New York lineup and ended with 7 catches for 96 yards.   The Giants had a 5 minute advantage in time of possession, and outgained the Vikings 395 to 164.  There’s a reason that the Vikings begged Favre to come back, hoping he would be close to last year.  They knew Jackson wouldn’t be close to the numbers (and results) Favre had last year. 

The Bears have been the luckiest team in the NFL.  Sunday, bad conditions would hurt the Patriots.  You can’t throw deep with 30 mile an hour winds.  So the defense can play tight, making it tough to run.  The offense has an advantage passing in those conditions, if they can grip the ball, throw accurately, and catch the ball, because the players know the snap count and the receivers know where they are going and the defenders are worried about their footing and don’t want to get burned deep.    Somebody forgot to tell the Patriots they couldn’t move the ball as they had almost 500 total yards (475) on their way to a 36-7 rout over the Bears in Chicago, who had just 185 total yards. 

The Pats were dominant against the Jets on Monday night, but with a short week, a road game, strong wind, cold temperature and snow, it didn’t look like a good day to move the ball.  After punting on their first series, they had 2 TD drives of 85 and 87 yards.  They got the ball back just before the end of the first half, and on the last play Tom Brady found Deion Branch on the sideline, and Branch outran the defense on a 59 yard TD to put the Pats up 33-0 at the half.   The worst thing that happened was CBS switched to the Jets-Dolphins game.  

The Packers would be tied for first with the Bears losing.  Of course, they would have to do their part and beat the Lions.  Unfortunately, they only managed 3 points and lost 7-3 to Detroit.  It was a case of the offense not doing much when Aaron Rodgers was in the game.    Rodgers had the first down on a scramble, but failed to slide when the defense was closing in, took a shot and his head hit the turf.  That’s his second concussion this season.  After he got knocked out of the game with a concussion in the second quarter, the offense didn’t get any better.

There were two key plays involving Greg Jennings.  First, Jennings had a step on the defender, the pass hit him in the hands, he bobbled it, and it was intercepted.  Then Jennings had a pass in the end zone ruled incomplete and he got up asking Mike McCarthy to challenge.   As was the case in the Atlanta game, the replay that showed the play should have been challenged wasn’t shown until after the next play was run, in this case a Mason Crosby field goal that put Green Bay up 3-0 instead of the 14-0 it should have been had Jennings held on in the first play and the second play been challenged.   But unlike the Gonzalez challenge against the Falcons where even if you lose the challenge it’s a good time out, this one was probably best to be sure, and the coaches weren’t until after the field goal was kicked.

Rodgers wasn’t doing that well before getting knocked out of the game (7 of 11 for 46 yards and one interception).  It wasn’t a great day for Matt Flynn, who completed 15 of 26 passes for 177 yards and a pick.   But the defense held the Lions to just 7 points.  Yeah, the Lions ran all over the Packers (41 carries for 190 yards), but couldn’t get anything going in the first half through the air (0 passing yards at halftime).  It didn’t get a whole lot better in the second half, with the Lions final passing stats 10 of 22 for 96 yards and two picks.  But the big play was a 13 yard tight end screen that resulted in the only TD of the game.

Would the Packers have won if Rodgers played the whole game?  Probably, but the Packers were beat at the line of scrimmage all game.  It wasn’t just Ndamokong Suh, it was the front seven making plays, but it started up front.  And while most teams with a good passing offense have had no problem scoring against the Lions, the Packers didn’t put one TD on the board.  The two Jennings plays were 2 plays, they had other opportunities.    On 4^th and one, the last offensive play of the game, Flynn went for the home run to Jennings, and missed.   A short pass probably made the most sense, since Green Bay has had limited success moving the chains running the ball in short yardage situations.  James Starks had a big game against San Francisco last week, but was limited to 6 carries for 8 yards.  The Packers were held to 66 yards on 20 carries. 

With the Bears losing, the Packers had a chance to move into first place.  Now they remain a game back with 3 to play.  And it doesn’t get any easier.  Next week the Packers head to New England to play the Patriots.  Rodgers might not be available.  It would be a longshot to beat the Pats if Rodgers was 100%.  If Flynn starts, the Packers will need someone to beat the Bears and hope the last 2 weeks work out.