I feel strongly that Ryan Braun will sit for the 50-games mandated by Major League Baseball for a failing to pass the PEDs test that it has in place.

I haven’t heard or read a compelling argument as to why he would be able to win this appeal. His defense team put out the “unusual circumstances” claim, and Braun has said he’s innocent but I’m betting it won’t fly, and here’s why.

First, the failed test.

He failed because of red flags that came up in his Testosterone/Epitestosterone balance. Usually a ratio of 1:1, but his apparently, were more than twice the previously recorded high. For instance, Floyd Landis, when he got busted for the same thing, his levels were at 11:1. So, put Braun in the 20:1 category. That is “insanely high” as the NY Daily News put it. But it’s not unfathomable. It’s not impossible, and it certainly isn’t a reason to think something is wrong with the test.

The test itself was put together because of its accuracy of determining the results, not because it’s a flawed system that gets it right some of the time. They don’t do tests like that. They do ones that find the outcome correctly.

So explain to me why this was so high…I don’t care about how “insanely high” it was, tell me why it was so high??

But before we do that…you know what we do first, we take those tests that have really high ratios and test them for a synthetic form of testosterone, because we don’t see humans create this much within their bodies. So, we tested for that, and sure enough, a synthetic form of testosterone is in the sample as well.

What reasonable explanation can you give me for that being in there?? And…it will have to be such an unfortunate occurrence that will make me believe that this was a huge misunderstanding and is something that was not intentional, that I over turn the suspension.

That just isn’t going to happen.

I’ve followed most of the PEDs stories very closely because I have an interest in there genuine effects on the body and I believe with the right medically prescribed dosages and correct usage that steroids/HGH/testosterone/almost all PEDs could benefit our human race, extending lives and making them more livable. I see a real value in them. But, that’s not how the gov’t see’s them, and it’s certainly not how sports leagues see them.

And they are right, because they do provide an advantage over opponents who aren’t using.

I have followed what rampant steroid use in the professional wrestling, of course all the baseball stuff, and even more closely some recent PEDs suspensions in MMA and because of this I can’t see a real scenario that Braun escapes the suspension.

Here’s my best guess as to what defense Braun will have to use:

Recently in MMA a few guys have been suspended because of their high levels of testosterone(T). One claimed something called Testosterone Replacement Therapy. Which, is used to raise T in the body, because the body doesn’t naturally produce normal levels of it. This is where the synthetic form of the substance comes in. In the treatment, the T is used to bring back that ratio of 1:1 and sometimes levels can be even higher say 4:1 or as high as 8:1. This is not unusual for that therapy.

Now, imagine you are a pro athlete…who would have to tell your doctors, team, maybe the fans, that you have this issue. That gets done, and now high levels may come up in tests, but you are in the clear because of the medically diagnosed issue you have.

If you didn’t tell anyone about the therapy…then you have no excuse for why the ratio is so high. So say Braun’s defense team is using this as the unusual set of circumstances, if it’s the case more questions arise…

How did Braun keep his levels at the normal ratio prior to this test? The connection would be that he masked it all this time to protect him from getting caught with high levels.

Secondly, the second test, which was conducted by Brauns side of the table,  that came back with the normal levels screams even louder to as using, because the stoppage would decrease the levels, and there would be questions as to why a spike happened in the first place, and no consistency as before. Had his second test came back with high levels or a bad ratio, and then we might have some evidence of a real issue. When it’s just one pop, it looks like he got caught.

So that is my guess…he’ll decry his low levels of testosterone, talk about how it wasn’t being abused, how he has a medical condition, how he had a doctor ok it, but it wasn’t cleared, how he may have unintentionally did something, but wouldn’t sully the game, and the problem is…that’s all too late.

See you in 50 games.